The recent revelations concerning the two meetings between the DUP and UUP, hosted by the Grand Master of the Orange Order Robert Saulters, attended by a representative of the British Conservative Party, and centred on the possibility of a unionist electoral pact, have raised several significant issues. Despite their apparent failure, and the subsequent downplaying of their importance by both the UUP and the Conservatives, the talks reiterate the fragility of the Stormont Executive and the persistence of tribalism in the “new” northern society. What comes out of the DUP and UUP getting together with the Orange Order and deciding how to thwart Sinn Fein is the familiar sign that politics and religion remain intertwined in unionism’s highest levels, a mutually beneficial relationship that also resulted in the prominence of the parade issue in recent discussions on the devolution of policing and justice.

BY PADRAIC GRANT

The Conservative Party’s involvement in the attempts to secure unionist unity occurred at a second meeting between the DUP and the UUP. In spite of David Cameron’s denial that his party was involved in attempts to create a unionist alliance, The Times reported a source claiming that is exactly what they were there for – something that seems obvious since their Northern Ireland spokesperson William Paterson attended, along with party leaders Peter Robinson and Reg Empey.  Their involvement has been one of the more controversial aspects of the affair, with criticism focusing on the potential disruption a re-alignment could have on the power-sharing structures. One of those critics was Labour business secretary Peter Mandelson, who argued that the Tories were “seeking an advantage for the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland at the expense of the peace process and the devolved government.” The Tories would have an interest in this issue for strategic reasons. An electoral pact would give them a great advantage in the event of a hung parliament following the 2010 British General Election, especially since their current alliance with the UUP may not prove to be the most fruitful of relationships should the UUP’s vote decline; in other words, a guaranteed number of seats would be preferable to the present, precarious forecast.

The clear strength of a unity pact for the DUP and UUP is the ability to avoid a split in unionist votes which would see Sinn Fein become the largest party in the Stormont Assembly and lead to Martin McGuinness becoming First Minister. Not only would this be an embarrassing blow for unionism, but it could also result in a disenfranchised unionist electorate turning to more hardline elements like Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice to represent them. The new alignment, however, would also lead to even further polarisation between nationalists and unionists, an intensification of differences made even worse by the possibility of the Stormont Assembly falling. While it appears little has come out of the talks for now, the very fact they took place is a significant one, suggesting that though there has been no result now, there could well be steps toward greater co-operation in the future: political sectarianism is here to stay.